The Buyback Stalls — and the National Case Unravels.
As at late July 2026, the Commonwealth’s national gun buyback has all but stalled — New South Wales is the only jurisdiction to have firmly committed, the ACT is still deciding, and a majority have declined. Five of eight have also declined ownership caps. This update sets out where the reforms now stand, why the “national consistency” argument has collapsed, and the legal questions that follow for the National Firearms Agreement.
Where the Buyback Now Stands
The Commonwealth set a deadline for the States and Territories to commit to its National Gun Buyback Scheme. That deadline has now passed — and, on the most recent public reporting, New South Wales is the only jurisdiction to have firmly committed. A clear majority have declined, are still deliberating, or have gone their own way — and the ACT’s own position, like its cap provisions, is still under consideration. Even the New South Wales Premier expects, at most, two participants:
To be frank with you, it does look like it’ll be NSW [and] the ACT.
The National Picture — Caps and Buyback
| Jurisdiction | Ownership caps | National buyback |
|---|---|---|
| New South Wales | Caps 4/10 | Committed |
| ACT | Considering | Considering |
| Western Australia | Caps 5/10 | Own scheme |
| Victoria | No caps | Declined |
| Queensland | No caps | Declined |
| South Australia | No caps | Declined |
| Northern Territory | No caps | Declined |
| Tasmania | No caps | Considering |
Only two jurisdictions have legislated caps — New South Wales and Western Australia; five of eight have declined them. The ACT’s caps are not yet law — they remain before the Assembly in the Firearms (Public Safety) Amendment Bill 2026, still under consideration. On the buyback, New South Wales is the only firm commitment; the ACT is still weighing its position, Western Australia ran its own separate scheme, and Tasmania is reported to be considering only a limited buyback confined to particular firearm types. The ACT is being asked to become only the third jurisdiction to adopt caps, and to join a buyback only New South Wales has firmly committed to — decisions that are still open.
The “National Consistency” Argument Has Collapsed
The caps and the buyback were sold to the ACT community as part of a settled national direction agreed at National Cabinet. That premise no longer holds. When a majority of jurisdictions decline a measure, national consistency points against it, not for it. And the independent evidence was never there to begin with:
“There is no clear evidence that numerical caps on individual ownership, by themselves, reduce firearms-related harm.”
The ACT’s own parliamentary committee said much the same in Finding 1 of its May 2026 Report 9 — “significant uncertainty over the operation of the proposed numerical caps.” Two independent, government-commissioned processes, the same conclusion.
Caps Were Never Part of the National Firearms Agreement
This point is often lost, and it matters. The National Firearms Agreement (NFA) — first agreed in 1996 and updated in 2017 — sets agreed national minimum standards, which each jurisdiction implements through its own laws. Numerical caps on individual ownership have never formed part of it.
A jurisdiction that declines caps is not departing from the National Firearms Agreement — there is no provision of the Agreement to depart from. “Harmonisation with the NFA” cannot be used to justify caps, because the NFA does not require them. It is the introduction of caps that sits outside the national framework, not their absence.
The Legal Questions Worth Asking
The national buyback was presented as a step toward new minimum standards under the NFA. That raises questions — which are for governments and their lawyers to resolve, not for us to pronounce on — that we think the Assembly should consider and take advice on:
1. Unanimity. Changes to the National Firearms Agreement are understood to require the unanimous agreement of all governments. With a majority of jurisdictions having declined the buyback and caps, that unanimity does not presently exist — which raises the question whether these measures can properly be described as a “national agreement” at all.
2. Just terms. Compulsory acquisition of lawfully owned firearms — whether directly, or through Commonwealth funding of State and Territory schemes — may engage the just-terms guarantee in section 51(xxxi) of the Constitution. There is authority that Commonwealth grants to the States cannot be used to acquire property otherwise than on just terms. How that applies here depends on the design of any scheme, and warrants proper legal advice before any compulsory acquisition proceeds.
What SSAA ACT Is Doing
We have written to the Leader of the Opposition, Mr Mark Parton MLA, further to our May submission, asking that the following be pressed in the Assembly:
- ✓Clarify the Government’s position — ask the Government to state where the ACT now stands on the buyback, given the national scheme has not achieved national agreement.
- ✓Reconsider the caps before they pass — the ACT’s cap provisions are still before the Assembly; five of eight jurisdictions have declined caps and the national consensus originally relied upon has gone.
- ✓Obtain and table legal advice — on whether these reforms require amendment of the National Firearms Agreement, and on the section 51(xxxi) just-terms implications of any compulsory acquisition.
- ✓Keep any buyback voluntary — at full pre-December 2025 market value, including accessories and ammunition.
- ✓Commit to a five-year review — with the evidence base reported back to the Assembly, similar to that recommended in the Lay Review for Victoria.
SSAA ACT has never opposed sensible, evidence-based firearms regulation. What we have said throughout — and what the national picture now confirms — is that caps and a compulsory buyback were advanced on a claim of national consensus that has not materialised, and on an evidence base that two independent reviews could not establish. The responsible course is to pause, take proper advice, and legislate on evidence rather than on a consensus that no longer exists. We will keep members informed as matters develop.
Sporting Shooters Association of Australia ACT Inc
Media contact: info@ssaaact.org.au
SSAA ACT Inc represents approximately 5,700 members. There are approximately 7,000 licensed firearm owners in the ACT. These are distinct figures.
Sources: Lay Rapid Review of Victoria’s Firearms Laws (Ken Lay AO APM, May 2026); ACT Standing Committee on Legal Affairs, Report 9 (May 2026); National Firearms Agreement 2017; public reporting on the National Gun Buyback Scheme, July 2026 (jurisdictional participation and the Commonwealth deadline); ICM Agriculture Pty Ltd v Commonwealth (2009) 240 CLR 140.
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