Victoria Rejects Ownership Caps.
The Victorian Government has formally rejected the recommendation to cap firearms ownership following the Lay Rapid Review. This is the most significant national development since the Bondi attack — and it directly undermines the primary justification used to impose caps on our community.
The Headline Result
The Victorian Government commissioned former Victoria Police Chief Commissioner Ken Lay AO APM to conduct a Rapid Review of Victoria's Firearms Laws following the Bondi attack. The Review was the most extensive firearms consultation in any Australian jurisdiction since December 2025 — 19,026 survey responses, more than 500 written submissions and 40 face-to-face consultation sessions.
The Victorian Government accepted 15 of the Review's 16 recommendations. The one it rejected was the most significant for our community.
"The Victorian Government will not be introducing a cap on firearms ownership."
This is not our position. This is the formal, published position of a State Government, informed by an independent review conducted by a former Chief Commissioner of Police. Victoria is the largest firearms jurisdiction in Australia by registered firearms, with close to 240,000 licensed holders and nearly 975,000 registered firearms.
What the Review Found About Evidence
The Lay Review's finding on the evidence base for caps is unambiguous and directly supports the position our community has maintained throughout this process:
"There is no clear evidence that numerical caps on individual ownership, by themselves, reduce firearms-related harm. Equally, there is no evidence that they are ineffective, or that they undermine broader public safety objectives when implemented as part of a wider regulatory framework."
This finding, from a former Chief Commissioner of Police commissioned by a Labor government, is now the most authoritative statement on the evidence base for caps in Australia. It sits alongside the ACT Standing Committee's own Finding 1 from Report 9: "The Committee finds there is significant uncertainty over the operation of the proposed numerical caps."
Two separate, independent, government-commissioned processes. The same finding. This is now on the public record.
The Jurisdictional Picture Has Reversed
When the national consistency argument was used to justify the ACT's caps, the implication was that all jurisdictions were converging on the same approach. They have not. The current national picture is as follows:
| Jurisdiction | Caps? | Position |
|---|---|---|
| Victoria | No Caps | Formally rejected following Lay Review finding of no clear evidence |
| Queensland | No Caps | Rejected federal buyback scheme, not implementing caps |
| South Australia | No Caps | Not considering quantity caps contrary to the national push |
| Northern Territory | No Caps | Opposed the federal buyback, not implementing caps |
| Tasmania | No Caps | Declined to set a specific ownership limit |
| New South Wales | Caps: 4/10 | Legislated — 4 firearms lower cap, 10 with genuine reason |
| ACT | Caps: 5/10 | Legislated — 5 firearms lower cap, 10 with genuine reason |
| Western Australia | Caps: 5/10 | Legislated — 5 firearms lower cap, 10 for primary producers |
Five of eight Australian jurisdictions have independently declined to implement ownership caps. The ACT is now the outlier, not the norm. The national consistency argument has not only been undermined — it has been reversed.
What the Victorian Government Did Accept
The Victorian Government accepted 15 of 16 recommendations and is immediately legislating four reforms:
Enhanced Reclassification Powers
The Chief Commissioner gains broader powers to temporarily recategorise firearms in response to emerging technologies. No immediate changes to existing classifications.
Citizenship Requirement
Firearms licences restricted to Australian citizens, NZ citizens with permanent residency, or non-citizens requiring a licence for occupational purposes.
Tougher Trafficking Penalties
Graduated penalties for firearms trafficking increasing with the number of firearms unlawfully possessed.
AusCheck Background Checks
National criminal intelligence via AusCheck becomes mandatory not just at application but at any point during the licence lifecycle.
Firearm Prohibition Orders are also being strengthened as part of the immediate reforms. Unlike the ACT's newly created FPO scheme, Victoria's FPO framework is an existing and established system being strengthened — with increased penalties and the permanent removal of the 10-year sunset provision.
What This Means for Our Community: Six Key Takeaways
The evidence base was confirmed as insufficient — again
The Lay Review's finding joins the ACT Committee's Finding 1 as formal, independent, government-commissioned acknowledgement that the evidence for caps is not established. This is now the documented baseline for any future national debate.
The national consistency argument has collapsed
Five of eight jurisdictions have declined to implement caps. Victoria — the largest jurisdiction by registered firearms — is among them. The ACT government justified its caps on the basis of national consistency. That justification no longer holds.
Victoria's model is the better template
Evidence-based, properly consulted, targeted at actual risk factors — tighter eligibility, health assessments, stronger screening and tougher penalties — and without arbitrary ownership limits. If the National Firearms Agreement renegotiation produces something closer to Victoria's approach, that is a significantly better outcome for our community.
The NFA renegotiation is the next battleground
All jurisdictions are engaged in renegotiating the National Firearms Agreement. Victoria's rejection of caps gives our community real leverage in that process. A renegotiated NFA that does not mandate caps would remove the political justification for them in the ACT and elsewhere.
The five-year review is leverage we must use
The Lay Review recommended a mandatory five-year review of cap effectiveness. Our community must be actively engaged in that process — ensuring the evidence is properly collected, independently assessed, and honestly reported to the public and to legislators.
Implementation detail is where this will be won or lost
The reforms the Victorian Government accepted — eligibility, health assessments, licence lifecycle oversight — will be developed in consultation with stakeholders. Our community must be at that table. We will continue to engage at every step.
Victoria's decision is the right one and reflects the evidence. We will continue to advocate at every level — in the NFA renegotiation, in the ACT's implementation process, and wherever our community's interests are being debated — for the same principle: that policy must be proportionate, evidence-based and targeted at actual risk. Victoria has just put that principle on the record at the highest level. We intend to hold every other jurisdiction to the same standard.
If you have questions about how these developments may affect you — your licence, your firearms, your activities or your cross-border arrangements — please contact SSAA ACT directly. We are here to help our members navigate what comes next.
Sporting Shooters Association of Australia — ACT Inc
secretary@ssaaact.org.au
Full Lay Review available at: vic.gov.au